We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $USD may return to the offensive as markets flee to cash amid fears of deep global recession thanks to the still-raging #coronavirus outbreak. Get your US Dollar update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/g1us4ZbYR5 https://t.co/detT6m6ZKo
  • The #Dow Jones, S&P 500 and #DAX 30 have bounced after aggressive declines. Can this momentum last? Trader positioning seems to be offering mixed signals as technicals point bearish. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/DdCUyoGSmL https://t.co/NQtbwy5Brg
  • Reports that London-based fund managers have discussed long market closures with the Bank of England are unlikely to bear fruit, but that they happened at all may boost already-crowded haven trades. Get your EUR/CHF market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/mernf5MDH3 https://t.co/1rzQT6ClCY
  • $AUD chart positioning suggests prices have set a swing top near the 0.62 figure. Re-engaging the long-term downtrend against $USD may follow. Get your AUD/USD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/OIEDlId6HZ https://t.co/CzqJf3wsgh
  • The $USD could be on the verge of regaining upside momentum against ASEAN FX such as the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit. Will the Philippine Peso follow? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/cBzPejcNHu https://t.co/4fcImOiSzD
  • $NZD chart positioning suggests the downtrend against its US namesake may be resuming but trader sentiment studies flash warning sign for sellers.Get your NZD/USD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/NUHD43A8C9 https://t.co/K7l3Ju0GP0
  • The Federal Reserve has made a powerful statement about its commitment to shoring up offshore $USD funding markets through the #coronavirus spread. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/fLZjxjr4L9 https://t.co/UdRor0d92U
  • The #Euro has dropped through support guiding it higher from late-March lows, suggesting that the end of a corrective rebound has given way to downtrend resumption. Get your $EURUSD market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/gpKowYNmGi https://t.co/CY7RuZf91s
  • What are a few of the common trading mistakes made by traders? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/Q3sPmP2rya #tradingstyle https://t.co/ayjehPGEeT
  • $USDCAD came close to taking out the 17-year-high just a few weeks ago, but this was followed by an aggressive pullback down below the 1.4000 handle.Get your USD/CAD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/aWmL2rlWzG https://t.co/cauVFdBxsd
Trading Defensively Ahead of the Fed

Trading Defensively Ahead of the Fed

2012-09-11 04:10:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Though we had a swell in volatility and a sharp euro and risk-based move through the second half of this past week doesn't mean that we have gauranteed trend. When picking trades, it is important to take those setups that fit underlying market conditions. And, for now, we are still seeing tight ranges on anemic participation figures. We could very well see this persist until the Fed can give some sort of resolution to the stimulus skepticism / hopefuls. As such, I'm looking to trade setups that look good for congestion setups and/or are not extreme of risk trends.

For exposure in the safe haven dollar, I'm working with the pair that neutralizes a lot of risk exposure: USDJPY. Long from 78.15, I'm in at the bottom of a very prominent wedge that has developed over months. A stop of 77.85 (and 30 pip first target) is purposefuly tight to account for the lack of impetus for most pairs. Equally divorced from risk (and the Fed decision to a significant degree) is my GBPCAD long with an average entry of 1.5640 (stop of 1.5530). This is a pair still near the bottom of its broader wedge and few catalysts to direct impetus.

My reduced-size long EURGBP from 0.7990 (I have an order to add at 0.7965 and stop at 0.7900) is more prone to risk given the active docket from the Euro Zone. Yet pairing the euro against the pound diminishes the Euro Crisis impact should it flare up again.

As for potentials, I am looking for those pairs that would better perform under current trading conditions (congestion and with enough separation from the prevailing uncertainties to produce tradable swings.

I have an open order to reenter a EURCHF long should it drop back to 1.2015 (my greed sidelined me for the run up to 1.2150). AUDCAD is a favorite of Ilya's, and the hold / reversal at former support (1.0175) looks like a good progression phase of a larger bear trend. I may not participate until the neckline breaks at 0.9975/50 though. Then there are the more exposed (better potentially for volatility). EURJPY has pulled back from its channel top, but I'd rather go with the dominant trend. If there is a viable bounce to be played from 98.80/99.00 before the Fed release, I may take it.

As for the big ticket players (EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, EURAUD, EURCAD, etc), I see potential - not not until the Fed has given release of speculative activity.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.