News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/MYWlQphqtb
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/paOy1oQmn3
  • US indices have a packed week ahead with earnings from the major technology names, US GDP data due and an FOMC rate decision. With so much on the docket the potential for volatility is heightened. Get your stock market forecast from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/CH4WoStHvu
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/otJwnuR7qe
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/s4lZWdJoXV
  • The US Dollar Index traded higher last week, sustaining its broader uptrend. Conflicting technical signals urge caution, but the directional bias remains skewed to the upside. Get your weekly USD technical forecast from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/jcwhcsUBEN https://t.co/tKrlrRZlZn
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/MGy9OTXpUI
  • The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD? Get your AUD technical forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/ph20zFv4qS https://t.co/v4g9ATf4rr
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/De69mTseZN
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/D7AeTM5OpH
Readying for the Fed

Readying for the Fed

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Risk will be heavy over the forthcoming 72 hours of trading. If I had to highlight one particular event that stands out amongst a range of an important events, the ECB policy decision would take the cake. There has been so much risk speculation and euro positioning that was leveraged by Draghi's supposed proposals last week, so the market is particularly focused on this event.

That said, they won't ignore the Fed decision. Speculation surrounding the most prolific supplier of stimulus is starting to starting to turn more realistic (no additional increase to the operation twist expansion from last month). This concern amongst the moral hazard prone may curb the pain of not receiving additional support and further leverage the ECB to put up an effort of its own. However, fundamentals are such that a drop in risk is easy to encourage.

I generally try to avoid risk exposure heading into this event (because gauging the outcome and market reaction to the Fed is more of a coin toss), but I do have some exposure. My GBPUSD short from 1.5720 is still on, but I have trailed to stop up to break even (the decision will be made around 1.5660).

Otherwise, my USDJPY long from 78.50 is a very small exposure and is meant to hold for months forward. I am similiarly patient with my EURCHF long - awaiting the SNB's decision to act or fold at its 1.2000 floor. New to the non-risk group is a GBPCAD long I took at 1.5715 (with a 1.5660 stop). There are some spillover concerns with the US health for the CAD, and the GBP will be an issue come Thursday's ECB and BoE decisions; so I will have to see how this is performing leading into Thursday's event risk.

Looking at the potential for volatility with the proper fundamental encouragement, there is plenty of opportunity out there. For a long risk, anti-dollar outcome for the Fed decision, I like EURUSD above 1.2325 or USDCAD below 0.9725 (they are highly correlated, so only one will do). For a reversal, I like AUDUSD or NZDUSD turning off their respective channel tops. There are plenty of risk-related opportunities out there, but I'll have to play them as they come; because the ECB can alter expectations and the impact fo the Fed. For my full expectations for the Fed, check out today's video.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES