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EURUSD Tempting but Risk Trends a Concern

EURUSD Tempting but Risk Trends a Concern

2012-07-24 04:23:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Risk took a severe hit Monday and so too did the euro. This side-by-side move likely reflects the influence of one on the other - the Euro crisis striking a nerve for global sentiment. The big drop on the opening session of the week was unmistakable, but so too was the support still in place for traditional sentiment leaders (S&P 500, AUDUSD, etc). This was a substantial move - especially for the euro - but a trend for risk and the dollar still aren't guaranteed.

...

Seeing the EURUSD close below its historical median was no small feat, so I decided to take a reduced size short from 1.2100 with a stop at 1.2250 (controlled position size and wide stop to match my hesitance). If risk trends decided to join the move with a meaningful break of their own, I would be happy to build it up to a full size trade. For a break on risk, I'll use the Dow or S&P 500 as guides with their complementary channels.

...

A risk aversion move would carry a lot of opportunity across the board. AUDUSD has a channel floor around 1.0200 and NZDUSD at 0.7870. There is a glut of options on this front, but these two lead the pack.

...

Looking to the alternative, if there is a bounce in risk appetite, there was an opportunity in NZDCAD rebounding off the floor of its channel going back to 6/18. I missed that move, however, having taken too long to act. My short-term short on this same pattern from Friday played out nicely and I booked the 50 pips profit mid-day. This was exactly the type of setup to trade - short-term and a curb on risk volatility.

...

A better positioned (though more risky) sentiment-based recovery opportunity resides with EURJPY. While EURUSD closed below its mid-point, EURJPY touched an 11 year low and the bottom of a descending channel at the same time. I don't like fighting trends, but this is an opportunity if the opposite of my fundamental bias takes.

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