We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/sofO135ElG
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data. Get your ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/ZGFaQQ3Hr2
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/73SaL5AeXD
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/EIC9YqfTec
  • Anybody else think that casting directors in movies are some of the most underrated people when it comes to giving a film/series credit?
  • No https://t.co/EoBltaP17k
  • Crude #oilprices may face heightened liquidation pressure as the cycle-sensitive #commodity finds itself under the pressure of resilient resistance and a vulnerable, multi-week rising channel. Get your crude #oil market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/cGPX4qcOH1 https://t.co/0U4JMJVFuf
  • The @ecb will likely boost its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program at Thursday’s meeting of its Governing Council; a move that could give the #Euro a lift. Get your currencies market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/I4PbmJNG1z https://t.co/hu6Ld1KdDB
  • $GBPUSD doesn’t have the cleanest set of technical indications, but #USD may give indications if it can break its trading range via the $DXY. Get your currencies market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/PrC9wAaXvU https://t.co/vHYHflwqR3
  • The ongoing contraction in US production may keep #oilprices afloat in June as crude output falls to its lowest level since October 2018. Get your crude #oil market update from @DavidJSong https://t.co/jj1bMLX0DF https://t.co/O9NOqbfHkb
Risk Turn into Weekend Warrants Caution

Risk Turn into Weekend Warrants Caution

2012-07-14 03:52:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

I'm not at all confident that the rally in risk trends (hit to the dollar) to end this past week was the start of a new trend, but it does curb immediate ambitions to build on a bear trend. More than just a bullish or bearish view on investor sentiment, I'm looking for the establishment of a lasting trend. It isn't impossible to find such conviction next week, but it will certainly be much more difficult.

As for my positions held into the weekend, I still have a moderate level of risk exposure in my short NZDUSD (from 0.7995) and AUDCAD (from1.0455) trades. Both are still in the money, but they have given back a lot of their gains. That said, neither has set new swing highs. With AUDUSD as a benchmark in its potential to hold a former trendline support as new resistance, this could be a correction in a larger trend - but we have yet to really establish that trend.

My interest in testing the water with other risk-sensitive currency pairs is substantially diminished. There are few, risk-positive setups that really strike me for short-term potential (I am very skeptical of a lasting move towards optimism - given growth, yield, financial stability questions). In shorting risk, I have exposure; and I wouldn't want to overleverage the theme without the potential for follow through.

In the meantime, I will keep a close eye on EURUSD; which I feel is a good representation of risk appetite in general. With that historical 50% Fib of its historical range at 1.2135, a further move lower will take a significantly level of conviction. The same is likely true if we want to see a general risk aversion move across the broader capital markets.

As for the rest of my exposure, my EURCHF and USDJPY long setups have little exposure to the broader currents in investor sentiment. With a multi-month time frame, I'm waiting for fundamentals to play play out with both - the former finding the SNB caving and the latter fitting the outlook for yields/liquidity/credit stability/growth.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.