We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
Positioning Ahead of the Greek PSI, NFPs

Positioning Ahead of the Greek PSI, NFPs

2012-03-08 01:37:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
Share:

My holdings haven't changed very much this past week - even though we may have seen a significant change in underlying risk trends. With that remarkable, technical trend reversal from the S&P 500, we have taken a big first step towards a true trend reversal. However, as often happens, trend development has been sidelined in respect of big-ticket event risk (Greek PSI, EU vote to release all of Greece's rescue package, a range of rate decisions, NFPs). In other words, this is a natural curb on a tentative trend; so don't read too far into the stall.

...

With this curbed trend reversal, we have to accept a longer wait time before we can ascertain whether we are on the verge of a large deleveraging move. And more time to ponder and absorb fundamental develompents rather than letting the emotions of the masses take over, the less certain a particular direction is.

...

That said, there are plenty of risk-related currencies and pairs out there that look ripe. AUDUSD (interesting levels are 1.06 and 1.05) and NZDUSD (0.8250 and 0.81) have just recently broken congestion patterns and have a lot of open room below. The same goes for the more isoteric pairs like AUDJPY, AUDCAD, CADCHF. I'm still floating the second half of my NZDJPY short (trailing the stop to break even at 67.10) having took profit on the first half at around 160 pips the other day. You have to be careful of an anti-risk approach however because of the daily rolls. I like NZDCHF for example for its massive head-and-shoulders pattern, but the carry is a killer. You also want to have a risk-on contingent as well. I like USDCAD after it held that trendline from 11/24 (now at 1.0025).

...

Then there are the Euro-crisis centric pairs. EURUSD below 1.3000 could generate more momentum under a disappointing outlook for Greece post PSI, GBPUSD could is working with a 1.5950-1.5650 range and GBPJPY is a highly risk-tuned pair with a blatant floor at 126.75.

...

Aside from this general setup, I'm still long my longer-term USDJPY long position (have not added yet as another carry unwind could give another pullback), long EURCHF awaiting the SNB's move and long the small GBPAUD to see if the euro/risk mix can help along the slow-burn reversal from recent record lows.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.