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Ready for a Strong Reversal but Managing Expectations

Ready for a Strong Reversal but Managing Expectations

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

How many times have we found the market's pull back to the very edge of a major reversal in risk trends themselves to only recover their footing and stumble higher. Too many times. This past week ended with another interesting view of risk aversion that brought the S&P 500 Index back to its channel floor, sent EURUSD tumbling and left the dollar-based carry currencies at reversal points. However, I will not try to jump to position for a bigger move until I have something tangible that speaks to confirmation.

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For existing positions, my most recent trade (short GBPUSD) returned to positive territory by pulling back with in its range. I've trailed my stop to 20 points below breakeven, and I'll look for a first target at 1.5800. The second objective will be loosely set around 1.5700 but momentum will be just as important here.

...

The USDJPY long I have is looking very good - though it is woefully small for size. I still think there is a great chance for a pullback should we get a carry unwind in the near future, upon which I may take profit on the existing position before it really turns and build up to a more respectable long position when bearish momentum fades. As for EURCHF...patience.

...

For setups next week, there are many pairs that have great positioning should risk collapse: NZDUSD, AUDUSD, NZDJPY, EURJPY, GPBJPY, AUDCAD, GBPAUD, EURNZD, etc; but those setups are in flux until the fundamental ground has been laid for such a reversal and follow through is a reasonable expectation.

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Meanwhile, what if we firm up and congestion takes over to start the week Monday? Take a look at NZDUSD. It is at the bottom of its channel starting with the February 1st swing low at 0.8285. That is a pair at the extreme of its 170-pip range - great for a break or reversal.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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