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Prepping the Euro and Pound Setups Ahead of ECB and BoE

Prepping the Euro and Pound Setups Ahead of ECB and BoE

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

We had another, quiet advance for underlying risk trends today yet the lack of momentum isn't doing anything for the FX drives. The european currencies and carry-based pairs took a notable step back in Wednesday's session. This is hardly the grounds for a reversal (we need more than a pause to make that call), but it does keep me cautious and make me a little more concerned in the upcoming event risk.

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My particular concern is with my young EURUSD long setup. Though it cleared a meaningful 38.2% Fib and recent congestion high (1.3210/35), follow through has been strained. Even the usual bullish leverage to be found in promises of progress in the Greek bailout situation was unable to lift the pair. This could be in observation of the upcoming ECB decision - though that is likely well priced in. I will cancel pending orders to add and pull up the stop to keep this light since I may not be able to monitor the outcome in real time.

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Another interesting observation is that EURUSD and GBPUSD marked a notable deviation on an intraday basis this past trading day. This could be the grounds for a 'arb' opportunity that is separate from individual, medium-term setups. Aside from this particular setup, I like the risk/reward for GBPUSD to the downside if we can find a confirmed a 1.5725 break, though that is not the prevailing scenario at the moment. The same dollar-positive scenario can be taken with USDCHF should it clear 0.9225/50; but this pair could also have a short-term breakout opportunity below 0.91. In these three pairs, I would need to pick one trade for a long European currency or long dollar scneario as they are highly correlated.

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There are also the risk potentials out there to consider. AUDUSD and NZDUSD are always good ones should sentiment collapse (1.0750/700 and 0.8300 respectively).

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Outside of the risk spectrum, we have a few unique setups. AUDNZD is near the top of its descending channel and the RBA optimism is fading, GBPAUD is a new favorate for its consistent trending and EURGBP is threatening to break above 0.8410. And, of course, I still have my long-term long EURCHF and USDJPY setups in place.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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