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Light on Trades into the Weekend but Plans to Jump Monday

Light on Trades into the Weekend but Plans to Jump Monday

2011-10-07 19:04:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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We are heading into the end of the week; and though there are some interesting setups with surprising volatility, I haven't jump on anything specific to hold over the weekend. I am not totally against taking a position just before the market drops off; but the requirements are certainly much higher. As it stands now, most of those interesting setups are in choppy, short-term switch backs with a questionable bearing through risk trends. Now is not a good time to take a position on underlying sentiment as it is still hazy - and most pairs have a connection to risk trends at the moment.

Given the incredible volatility we say throught he week's final session and the specific event risk we faced in UK bank downgrades and Canadian employment; my GBPCAD position was seeing incredible volatility. I was somewhat surprised of the direction the market took given the outcome of this collective event risk; but that is how things fall sometimes. The bounce knocked my trailed stop at 1.6165 to offer me 198 pips on the second half (the first half was 202 pips).

My only other active position heading into the weekend is the long EURCHF with an average entry at 1.2218. This has held remarkably well despite the announcements of the Italian and Spanish downgrades. If Euro officials try to launch massive programs next week, that could boost risk appetite and leverage EURCHF on two fronts. I have a limit set at 1.2500.

Looking ahead to next week; I have a number of setups that are looking very good. EURUSD is particularly interesting given the sharp NY session reversal following the downgrades. I was doubtful of the bullish break above 1.34 to begin with; so the drop back below that level marries fundamentals with technicals. If we do see a genuine dollar drop develop next week, I am very interested in the long GBPUSD opportunities. Aside from holding that range support; we have yet to see a true correction on a very aggressive bear wave. Fundamentally, the devleopments of the past week were already well-priced in; so now it is just associated to euro.

Others to keep a close eye on: USDJPY (for scalpilng); EURCAD (creating a big rounded top, reversal pattern with a floor at 1.3815); AUDUSD (a retest of former suppoart around 0.99); and NZDUSD (as it returns to major trend support at 0.75).

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