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Volatility Continues but Direction is Even More Difficult to Establish

Volatility Continues but Direction is Even More Difficult to Establish

2011-07-19 21:00:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Market conditions are still difficult to work with. Volatility reared its head once again through this past trading session and the impact was felt through a dramatic rally in risk appetite trends in capital markets. However, this swell didn't see the same level of intensity in the FX markets. In fact, some of those pairs we would expect to see the effects of a positive shift in sentiment with (EURUSD being one of them) held to relatively restrained performances. This is an indication - along with volume seen on other asset classes - that conviction is still a critical, missing peice to developing a consistent trend.


For trades, I had two positions carried over from yesterday. The short-term GBPUSD short from 1.6050 with a 60 pip initial stop and first target was knocked out as the positive sentiment bearing firmed up. The move to 1.6175 brings us to a much more significant techncial resistance (a long-term 38.2 percent Fib, 50-day SMA, six-month trendline and channel top). There is event risk to consider for this pair though in tomorrow's BoE minutes; so I'll have to play it close to chest - but I am contemplating placing a short entry order closer to resistance.


The other trade I had on - the AUDCAD short from 1.0200 (with a second entry order at 1.0225) - found significant follow through and nearly jump started a bear trend with this morning's BoC event risk. We've since retraced the headway; but the general setup is still in place with that former support (head&shoulders neckline) at 1.02 acting as new restistance. The initial stop (on both halves should the second limit trigger) is set to 1.0325 with a first target of 1.0075 and second at 0.9850.


In the potential column, there are number of very interesting setups out there. I am dangerously attracted to two very risky setups. The New Zealand dollar is way over-extended; but it can continue this trend through the foreseeable future if speculators don't give up on it. That said, both NZDJPY and NZDCHF are at significant levels of resistance. NZDJPY is looking at the top of its rising trend channel from April at around 68 and NZDCHF is at a long-term trendline and 50 percent Fib at 0.7075. Both are very high risk; but I may be tempted enough to go in for a small short on both instances.


Other opportunities to watch include EURGBP as it looks to break an inverse H&S pattern at 0.88, AUDUSD as it approaches congestion resistance at 1.0775 and GBPCAD as it ranges between 1.5525 and 1.5285.

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