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GDP, NFPs and Rate Decisions Next Week but Does that Offer Trading Opportunities?

GDP, NFPs and Rate Decisions Next Week but Does that Offer Trading Opportunities?

2011-05-27 17:27:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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We have trudged through a pretty dull week. There have been a few highlights (short dollar, long kiwi, long franc positions); but these stand out moves don't seem to line up to larger fundamental themes. That concerns me. There are periods when individual currencies or assets can take off; but the run rarely lasts for very long unless a larger fundamental consideration comes in and backs up the move. As such, I'm tempted to fade many of the prevailing moves out there that seem to lack the fuel to maintain their trajectory. However, that is inviting exessive risk. I'll wait until it is clear that the speculative well is running dry and technicals confirm a a return to fundamental reality before I make an effort to counter-trend trade with any size.

...

Meanwhile, looking out to next week, we have a quiet start with the Memorial Holiday in the US. There will certainly be FX trading and activity through all three sessions; but this particular region carries more than its fair share of market sentiment. As such, I won't expect the generation of new trends to start the week - though there could be sharp volatility if one of the more dramatic headlines we have been seeing recently is aggitated. Through the first 48 hours of trading, I'm looking for those setups that carry a lot of punch for short-term activity. AUDJPY's symetrical and terminal wedge (86.90 to 85.80) and CADJPY's descending wedge to 82.50 support are particularly interesting. EURCAD is interesting as well as it approaches a pivot/Fib at 1.3980 that could turn out to be a right shoulder on a bigger head-and-shoulders pattern.

...

Other positions that look good; but are more scenario specific and will take a little more time include EURUSD and AUDUSD. I like the reversal (short-term and long-term) potential from both. However, for that to happen would most likely require a S&P 500 reversal. The equity benchmark is now at the top of its descending trend channel; but breaking its long-term rising trend at 1,300 is the real burden for a bearish wave. There seems a lot of interest in USDCAD given its slow progress in breaking its descending trend channel; but this pair struggles for strong follow through on new trends. This woudl have to be played at lower leverage and over a longer period.

...

As for my active trades, AUDNZD grows even more extreme in its technicals and fundamentals; but it hit my stop so I'm out. I'll reconsider it when it shows it is really starting to turn. My GBPCAD is another extreme pair that is growing ever more extreme. I'll let the reduced-size position play out as prepared - which may work with the activity lull to start next week. A couple of other positions to consider early next week: EURGBP breaking 0.8665 and still not fully appreciating fundamentals; NZDUSD rallying above 0.81 and highly exposed to risk appetite trends regardless of direction; and CHFJPY making a lound and clear move above its triple top at 94.

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