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Short-Term Trades Like a GBPUSD Short Fit Current Trading Conditions

Short-Term Trades Like a GBPUSD Short Fit Current Trading Conditions

2011-05-25 20:02:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist

There are a lot of trade setups out there that look particularly attractive. The only problem is that they are opportunities that require considerable time and larger moves to play out. Those are not the ideal conditions for trading right now. Larger trends and prominent themes have struggled for direction and momentum - leaving us with considerable start and stop. The examples of trade examples out there that really draws my interest seems endless. At the top of my list are EURUSD breaking below 1.4000 and AUDUSD below 1.0450 to extend deeper reversals; but those setups likely require a bigger shift in risk appetite which we have yet to secure.


So, looking for those opportunities that are not so reliant on bigger shifts in the fundamental backdrop or dependent on cross-market correlations; I am looking at GBPUSD and AUDNZD. For cable, I'm interested in a longer-term, bearish channel break below 1.6050; but there is short-term potential here in the meantime. I'm waiting to see if a 38.2 percent Fib / 50-day SMA / range high confluence around 1.6310 can turn this pair around back into its range. I drop below 1.6260 will be my signal and a 75 pip initial stop and first target will be a good starting point. In the meantime, I've already taken a long AUDNZD position from 1.3165 with a 100-point stop and 125-point initial target. Though the pair edged its range low around 1.32, there is a zone of confluence down to 1.3150 that includes a rising trend, long-term 38.2 percent Fib and 200-day SMA. Fundmentally, this pair doesn't require a strong shift in sentiment trends to develop a correction. It just needs to reconnect to underlying fundamentals


Among other trading opportunities out there; I'm tempted by the EURGBP break below 0.8665 (playing the euro's financial troubles) and GBPJPY bullish brek above 133 (as an offset to my GBPUSD ambitions). If I am comfortable latter on and there is a better price; I may jump. Elsewhere, CHFJPY has rallied back to 94 and threatens to create a triple top (good for a breakout or reversal); CADJPY is still patiently waiting out a breakout from 85-83; EURCAD is waiting for its 1.3625 range low to come into play and AUDCAD is taking its time with reaching the boundary of its 1.04 to 1.02 range.

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