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Better to Take Profit on EURUSD and Await the Next Move

Better to Take Profit on EURUSD and Await the Next Move

2011-05-13 00:35:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Thursday's trading session was a corrective one. I'm not saying we are are going to see a dominant bear trend reemerge in the immediate future; but the general direction for the day did curb the potential seen in the risk aversion effort we have seen over the past few weeks. Stalled price and fundamental trends on Thursday's are highly disruptive because it is difficult to revive conviction when we know the countdown to the weekend liquidity drain is running. This lack of momentum encouraged me cut the second half of the EURUSD short at 1.4270. I still see tremendous potential through this pair as it adjusts to European financial troubles and risk appetite trends going forward; but we can always get back in when those fundamental winds pick up again and the pair drops below 1.4150 support.

...

It is further beneficial to book that setup as it helps offset the stopped CHFJPY and EURCAD longs that were stopped earlier in the week. As for the second, I think there is a very similar technical pattern (and perhaps similar fundamental conviction) as we trade around the 38.2 percent Fib, 200-day SMA and pivot confluence at 1.3625. A break here though would likely come with a break on EURUSD. We don't want to leverage up on the same trade. Alternatively, the GBPCAD was also knocked out today by its trailed stop. After hitting its first target at 1.5750, the stop was trailed up and to breakeven - a level that we hit Thursday. The channel is still in place though, so it is one to watch.

...

Still in place is the NZDUSD short which just barely missed out on its first target at 0.7835. I was a little too aggressive with placing that target perhaps as it is set at nearly 100 percent of the range. Nonetheless, this risk-sensitive pair has held its resistance and is still in place - but keep a close eye on the S&P 500 and other sentiment barometers.

...

Among the other pairs I'm interested in, we have EURJPY around 115/114. It is extremely volatile around its technical boundary; but it is also a very good alternative to EURUSD. If there is going to be a rally for risk trends - I'd rather play it through EURJPY than the major. AUDCAD is another alternative view pair. The bounce at 1.02 support was confirmed; but follow through has been tame. There is alot of yield here; but it can still be hit by risk aversion.

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