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The Follow Through in the Risk Rebound Extends Aussie Rally, Dollar's Tumble

The Follow Through in the Risk Rebound Extends Aussie Rally, Dollar's Tumble

2011-03-19 00:39:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist

The rebound in the surge of risk aversion that was so prominent over the past week had more pace on it than minor technical levels could deal with. Looking across the market yesterday, there were relative levels of support popping up for risk positioning across the board. On the belief that positive sentiment would be limited by a market that is skeptical of officials' efforts to fix the symptoms rather than finding a cure and the confluence of so many troubling developments; I took a few small positions with technical levels standing in as the backstop for fading momentum. This reprieve may indeed be temporary; but the recovery has already pushed further than my limited technical views were allowing for. As such, I have seen my small GBPUSD short from 1.6145 hit its 60 pip stop while AUDCAD has similarly nudged its own exit at 0.9825.


As it happens, I think AUDCAD is still a very attractive pair both fundamentally and technically. While the former range low that was a neckline on a large head-and-shoulders pattern has been distended; the pair ended the week at a descending trendline of lower highs, the 20-day SMA and Fib confluence all at my exact stop level after rallying over 200 pips. This looks first like a good fade opportunity and on a larger scale a deeper retest before the bigger bearish wave can dig itself in. I'll be watching this one closely on Monday's Asian session open for confirmation that it will stall; and if so, I will attempt another small short. This also happens to add to my short Aussie dollar exposure elsewhere; so I must remain vigilant. I didn't trail up my stop on the second half of my AUDUSD short after it hit its first target; and now it is back up at its former support at 0.9975 looking much like AUDCAD. The same with my GBPAUD long. Having revesed its mult-year down trend and posted progress after a period of congestion, it retraced to test 1.62 as new support.


My remaining positions are yen based (I have a clear bias in terms of risk exposure). My very low leverage and long-term USDJPY long setup is in the money; and this intervention effort only furthers my belief that long-term financial and rate imbalances find this pair far too low. And, as for my more timely and speculative CADJPY short; my stop was barely missed on the volatile retest of further support as new resistance. Yet, settling into the end of the day; this pair will start next week only 30 points from my first target.


Other potentials keep me interested in the volatile and risk-sensitive currency pairs. The bigger technical and fundamental opportunities for GBPUSD still exist; and I'm waiting for a break of the big head-and-shoulders neckline down at 1.5975 or perhaps a more risky play around the 1.6285 shoulder. EURUSD could be a fundamental and momentum fade as it approaches the November swing high near 1.4250 that may coincide with the timing of the Thursday/Friday EU summit. If the outcome for the euro is positive, I would prefer to take advantage of it with EURJPY's completion of its very large invese head-and-shoulders pattern above 115. In the meantime, USDCAD could provide a significant reversal should it break above parity or a consistent range play; NZDUSD is looking alot like AUDUSD, while the former has better precedence for follow through; and then EURGBP may have potential won a key reversal above 0.8725. I'll wait until next week to confirm these opportunities however.

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