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Counting Down to the Next Clear Drive in Risk Trends

Counting Down to the Next Clear Drive in Risk Trends

2011-03-07 23:24:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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A new trading week has already kicked off; and the most remarkable observation we can make is that underlying fundamental trends have not significantly altered their course. How can I make that assessment? We have not seen a remarkable bout of volatility or meaningful trend across any specific asset class - much less across the financial markets (which is typically the best sign of a burgeoning fundamental drive). That said, there is still considerable risk of a few prominent scenarios developing quickly. My biggest concern is that we see a dramatic collapse in risk appetite that perhaps starts in commodities or equities and spreads across the market. I think there is a severely high risk of this occuring with in the near future; but until then, I will either align my medium-term setups to this outlook or keep objectives and stops reined in. In the meantime, we could always see a meaningful drive instigated by rate hikes, rate speculation, unforeseen event risk or any other number of catalysts that feeds the capitalistic urges that are never hidden amongst traders.

...

For positioning, my same trades are still in play. The second-half of my short-term USDJPY long position (my long-term is viewed on a weekly and monthly charts; so this activity has little bearing with that low leverage setup) nearly hit the trailed stop at 81.85; but turned course before reaching the level. I'm deciding to set my hard target for the second half at 83.75 for now; but I could move this up depending on momentum and market conditions. My low-leverage, long EURAUD is still in place from 1.3825; and I'm waiting to see what happens to the 1.3870 swing high from January and the 200-day SMA; but the fundamentals still look encouraging. And, the GBPUSD short has once again reversed short of its 1.6350 short; but has not taken that necessary step to definitively reverse this year's rising trend channel. I'm sticking with it; and we may not see resolution (for better or worse) until the BoE rate decision.

...

As for the opportunities out there; I am liking EURUSD more and more for a flagging momentum reversal. This pair has reason enought to mark a short-term correction from both fundamental and technical approaches. I'll see what happens around the 1.3950 level and what is happening the background to encourage such a move - provided it does occur. I'm similarly taking a speculative approach on that USDCHF reversal setup. Should it clear 0.9325 with conviction, the effort to take profit and capitulation on unwinding late entrant shorts could be aggressive. I am waiting for a clear AUDUSD reversal below parity, then 0.99 and on to 0.98 as perhaps one of the greatest setups we will see in months. AUDNZD is far more leveraged in its reversal opportunity having covered 1000 pips in little more than a month. With a little distance or few more conditions to meet, I'm also watching GBPCHF, EURJPY, GBPAUD, CADJPY and AUDCAD.

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