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EURUSD and GBPUSD Breakouts May not be as Easy to Catalyze as One Would Think

EURUSD and GBPUSD Breakouts May not be as Easy to Catalyze as One Would Think

2011-02-28 22:14:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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It wasn't an error to list long USDJPY twice in the breakdown for positions. I have two separate exposures taken for two indivual reasons and for two different time frames. On the one hand, have been and will be long the pair in a very small size as I wait for long-term fundamentals to sink in. The other position is significantly larger, looking at a far-shorter time frame and has a first target that is consider much more reasonable. The background to this setup is a good reflection of my overall view of the markets. Though the risk of a major trend reversal (bearish when we are talking about indicators that are positively correlated to sentiment, like the S&P 500 index); that threat has eased somewhat heading into this week. Technical support has stepped in and the catalysts for a more prolific shift (originally leveraged by the rapid rise in commodity prices) have thinned. I'm still concerned about a medium-term shift in risk; and the threat that this happens without warning is high. That said, I need to play what is in front of me.

...

As for other active positions, I am still short EURJPY. This pair hasn't shown much in the way of progress; but the congestion it has developed is working lower swing highs that is working its way into a nice wedge. Considering my outlook for risk trends and my ongoing concern surrounding the revived coverage of European debt problems, I am comfortable with waiting on EURJPY to make its decision (though waiting for the ECB rate decision could be dangerous). New to the mix is a highly-speculative GBPUSD short position from 1.6265. A stop at 1.6350 and first target of 1.6165 reflect my expectations for significant resistance to hold steady while there is a lull fundamental fodder behind what really matters to sterling traders (rate expectations).

...

Currently on the 'watch list', I have a few high volatility pairs and those that are the most fundamentally leveraged. Yet, my top setup would have to be a potential USDCHF reversal. The pair has dropped sharply to a record low and has recently shaken the channel that has formed. Two steps into a reversal; I'm waiting for it to rise above 0.9300 and then 0.9350 for a trigger on entry. Elsewhere, I'm still interest in EURCHF and GBPCHF even though both put in for notable bounces. They could still return to notable support levels without much encouragement. AUDUSD is another high potential pair now at range resistance at 1.0190. I wouldn't try to play a bullish breakout because follow through would be fundamentally limited. A bearish break though will need to wait for a bigger level like parity. AUDNZD and GBPAUD offer high-potential and exceptionally risky Aussie pairs that are facing the RBA.

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