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Ratcheting Down My Trading Approach for Next Week

Ratcheting Down My Trading Approach for Next Week

2011-02-19 03:35:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Taking a big-picture look at the FX and financial markets this past week; there was a very notable shift. Big-ticket event risk that could have significantly altered the pace of the markets by driving meaningful breakouts and trends via underlying fundamental trends stoked volatility but left a meaningful drive off the books. So, once again, we are left without a clear catalyst. Without an underlying move in risk appetite trends, amplified interest in yield speculation or heightened speculation surrounding growth expectations; meaningful trends will be difficult to generate and sustain. I have to adjust my trading approach to these conditions over the coming week. Nearer targets, tighter stops, shorter trading time frames and less concern over correlations will shape the trades I take.

...

From the existing positions that I'll carry into next week, EURUSD is notably absent. My efforts to play short this pair on the expectation that fundamentals were not active enough to run the technical boundaries that were standing in the way of price action fell through. Three attempts to short on progressively smaller position size and now this pair is left without a convincing technical picture; so I will wait until something significant develops once again. In the meantime, the USDCAD long avoided its 0.98 stop again before recovering some lost ground. This pair is falling back into its habit of demolishing technical patterns. CHFJPY is looking primed for reversal at the edge of a broad range after a five-day rally. I like the potential for a correction as much as I did on Thursday when it was established. CADJPY has not made major progress in its own channel reversal; but it has done more to confirm the importance of resistance and has put in progress towards the first target at 84.

...

For potential trades next week, the timing and objectives are more restrained. For USDJPY, the pullback below 83.50 was the minor move. Far more important is whether this pair breaks below 83 which would open the pair to freer movement as it pulls back into its broader range. GBPUSD looks primed for a significant break should its push above 1.63; but the lack of a clear fundamental theme could keep this setup from playing out as a great trade. I'll play it by ear. I am waiting for the break of 0.99 from AUDUSD; but in the meantime, the pair revert to a range-based pattern should the wedge top at 1.0150 hold and risk trends keep quiet. Ranges are preferable in quiet periods; but they can also be wide congestion patterns. That said, EURGBP's proximity to the rising trendline support for its broad wedge at 0.8350 could offer a good technical opportunity. Fundamentally, the hold of the 100-day SMA on GBPAUD and subsequent follow through on the meaningful trendline break is something I would like to happen. Yet, whether that is realistic is another matter. I could step into this pair; but it will certainly have to be something I build up over time.There are others; but since they are not immediately pressing, we'll save them for next week.

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