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Balance is Needed for My One-Sided Dollar Approach

Balance is Needed for My One-Sided Dollar Approach

2011-02-17 03:15:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist

We have passed through the bulk of event risk this week (centered largely on the pound, euro and yen); and few clear trends have resulted from this mix. Technically, I have been particularly interested in the US dollar through this bout of fundamental activity - though the potential for the greenback responding to this mix was relatively low. Nonetheless, the high potential seen in global financial strains and an overdue unwinding of risky positioning presents a strong case for the dollar when things start moving. That is where my interest in the greenback comes from; but we are still waiting for that critical catalyst to push the market in that direction. In the meantime, I position for that inflection point in case that big trend takes over. However, leverages my exposure to long dollars and short risk appetite. I need a balance.


Looking for a counterbalance for my existing outlay and my forecast; I come across USDJPY. I am long this particular pair on low leverage for a long-term view of fundamental and technical reversal. However, I see notable, short-term potential in this pair after its aggressive rally from February 4th. Should the dollar pull back, it would only amplify the potential for a natural correction for this major. My technical cue would be a move below 83.50 and a stop just above 84 would allow for early entry and a first target that is easily within reach (while the second objective can be left entirely to momentum). If I'm looking for other risk-positive options, GBPCAD is a lesser setup below 1.5775.


As for the rest of my existing exposure; I'm firmly set toward risk aversion / dollar appreciation. I've taken a short-term EURUSD short from 1.3565 and kept my stop close at 50 pips with an equivalent first target. I see potential with this slow reversal making progress; but it isn't worth taking too much risk on. NZDUSD is a little further along in its reversal after breaking its long-term rising trendline and range bottom. This is the technical foundation from my short at 0.7540 with a 55-pip stop and first target. I have a Canadian dollar bias wrapped up into this risk averison view with USDCAD's long from 0.9870 (with a 70 point stop) and CADJPY short from 84.65 (with a 60 point buffer).


My AUDCHF short in the meantime has burned me again. A quick rally from the Aussie dollar knocked the position out and came rigth back down again. The fundmentals haven't changed; but the technicals aren't as encouraging. I need to wait a little before committing to the follow through on GBPAUD and GBPNZD trend breakouts. AUDUSD will lead me to a short when 0.9950 breaks and I will add when it drops below 0.99 and then 0.8850. Then there is the reversal opportunity from GBPCHF. A move below 1.54 would be a good trigger.

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