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A Second Round of Event Risk Presents Further Trade Opportunity

A Second Round of Event Risk Presents Further Trade Opportunity

2011-02-16 03:33:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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We passed through a significant wave of scheduled event risk; and the FX market has come out the otherside more or less intact. However, the tenative breakouts that have started to edge out on a few critical pairs and volatility on others presents a very tense situation. Have we already seen the necessary breakouts to dive into those fundamentally and technically active pairs; or is this just a siren-song to lull us in and subsequently find ourselves sunk as a lack of follow through evolves into a reversal? It is too early to tell; but there is relatively little harm in holding out for meaningful confirmation before jumping into major positions. In the meantime, there is room to test the waters with small positions.

...

My primary focus Wednesday was the euro and pound-based pairs. There was certainly volatility on both their accounts. However, the outcome of the data hasn't exactly encouraged me to dive into the market. On a few other cases, my reluctance to place a limit order for fear of aimless volatility kept me from a few good setups. Most notable through the day was the sharp rally for the British pound that pushed GBPNZD to take the final step in the large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern with a break above 2.1200. This was perhaps the best setup; but GBPAUD presented its own opportunity with the break above 1.61 (though there was considerable energy exerted simply reaching that boundary). I'm still intersted in GBPUSD, but its drive right back into its two-week range doesn't encourage any immediate action. I'll wait for resolution in a break from the 1.63 / 1.60 consolidation zone. As for EURUSD, the GDP data wouldn't further the tentative slip below 1.35 - neither would it encourage a clear reversal. Nevertheless, I'm still very interest in this particular pair.

...

In the meantime, I'm taking some exploratary exposure into a few new tentative positions. In addition to my long-term and very low leverage long USDJPY position as well as the USDCAD long range setup from 0.9870; I've taken a baby step into short AUDCHF and CADJPY exposure. Both are based primarily on technicals. The former finally broke its 0.9650 neckline (a development I was looking for next week with a poorly positioned short); so I have taken a reduced short at 0.9635 with a tight 50 point stop and first target. CADJPY tested the upper boundaries of an ascending channel; and without notable data or a tangible swell in risk appetite trends, it seems a decent short-term pullback candidate. WIth that in mind, a reduced-size short from 86.65 with a 60 point initial stop and first target gives me reasonable technical exposure. A bigger setup on the books is the tentative bearish trendline and range break from NZDUSD below 0.7550. A small 0.7545 with a 55 point stop and first target is a first step that can be added to should it show progress.

...

Amongst a range of other pairs that are in some stage of development, AUDUSD is perhaps the most appealing potential. It may be worth establishing a tentative short near parity on the believe that it has already put in for a tentative break; but that would be the same setup as NZDUSD. I'm going to be more frugal with this pair; yet, I will certainly dive in should it move below 0.9900 and setup a major reversal opportunity.

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