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Aussie Dollar Offers Immediate Trades but Bigger Setups are Just Over the Horizon

Aussie Dollar Offers Immediate Trades but Bigger Setups are Just Over the Horizon

2011-02-11 02:43:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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There are many extraordariny technical setups out there that look like prime trades. However, this is where I need to practice patience. We are in the final 24 hours of this trading week, which means that significant trends will be very difficult to develop. What's more, this entire preceding week has defined congestion and chop (hence my shift to seeking out short-term setups). I'm still looking at and acting on these setups that can play out quickly; but then again, you can't ignore the larger patterns and fundamental threats just beyond the weekend. The potential for volatility and even catalyzing meaningful trends is high. Good thing there just happens to be more than a few great setups to take advantage of this return to action.

...

Before looking out to far; we should go over those positions that are playing out now. That USDJPY wedge that we were watching for so long produced a strong break above 82.50 - though I did not have an entry order on and therefore didn't participate. The same is true of GBPJPY which surged through its collective resistance at 132.90. That said, my lower leverage, USDJPY long is still in place and doing well - though my intentions are much longer-term. Expected to play out much more quickly are the AUDCHF and AUDCAD setups I laid out earlier today. I'm already in AUDCHF from 0.9720 and set the initial stop and target at 90 points - though the real action comes should this pair break its clear head-and-shoulders neckline at 0.9650. The same general pattern is seen on AUDCAD; though it has already slipped below this support at 0.9975. A bounce to retest and drive lower once again would be confirmation for entry.

...

Now, looking over the horizon (the weekend), the possiblities are mouth-watering. EURUSD has developed a nice reversal pattern with a hold up around 1.3550/00 just as the euro shows it is having financial strains again and 4Q GDP figures approach. GBPUSD is reversing within a rising trend channel; and calls its break points at 1.60 / 1.63. GBPAUD has pushed above 1.58 and a multi-year descending trendline. GBPNZD is close to doing the same but with horizontal resistance (these two can be played as opposing views of the same theem). AUDUSD has pulled back to threat a reversal back below parity; but the real decision will be made at 0.9850. CHFJPY has pulled back slowly to frequented support at 85. USDCAD is once again look up to parity with CPI figures on both sides come up. There is more; but we'll cover them more extensively as they approach and on the run in the Real Time News feed.

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