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High Level Event Risk Looms, Caution is Warranted for New and Existing Trades

High Level Event Risk Looms, Caution is Warranted for New and Existing Trades

2010-07-19 19:53:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist

The choppy and reserved pace of activity that we have seen to start the week is a good sign of what we should expect this week. Hesitancy and caution are tantamount given the heavy round of event risk that looms this week. Both the Euro and risk appetite are at the greatest risk this coming week. My primary concern is what is going to happen with the EU stress test results due at the end of this week. European officials are smart to release it after market liquidity drains for the week as traders will have time to chew on it rather than letting panic spread organically. Other concerns over the coming week are the UK's 2Q GDP reading, the BoC rate decision and a range of top tier indicators scheduled for release. It is perhaps this combined threat of risk going forward that has restrained sentiment trends and the euro today despite a round of very unsettling headlines. Those updates that were most shocking was the rumor that Hypo Real Estate failed the stress tests; news that Ireland was downgraded and the warning that Hungary's talks with the IMF and EU over an extended credit line broke down. All of this points to financial troubles for one of the world's largest markets.
As for my existing positions, my AUDCHF is holding up relatively well but it is made little progress with today's choppy markets. Alternatively, I decided to cut GBPCHF at breakeven because the pair has failed to produce the follow through that I would expect from a breakout and reversal. What's more, with public debt figures due tomorrow, this currency is looking at potential volatility. New to my cadre today is a short CHFJPY position on a test of 83 to confirm that the two-month rising trend channel has indeed reversed course. A stop 160 points higher means a first target should be equidistant. Finally, I still have my USDJPY long; but it is still in a small size. Testing another lower, even level will encourage a build in the position size as will a confirmed reversal. Just off recent historical lows, further downside progress will be exceptionally difficult to force.
As for potential trades, I have also taken the liberty to trim the fat here as well. There is heavy event risk with the UK; so I cut out the pound setups. The euro based opportunities will have to pass greater scrutiny - though I still like a potential reentry on EURCAD and maybe even a drive above 1.50 for EURAUD. Ahead of the Bank of Canada's rate decision tomorrow, AUDCAD is on the verge of confirming resistance or extending its bullish drive. I would take up a position with the former scenario in a break below 91. AUDNZD is still deep in its congestion pattern so that is on the backburner. Finally, I like CADJPY which is currently testing is very long-term and frequented rising trendline support around 82.

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