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A New Trading Week and Week Dollar Bid Give Me a Cautious Start

A New Trading Week and Week Dollar Bid Give Me a Cautious Start

2010-07-12 15:59:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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I didn't seem to miss much on Friday; so it was good that my positions were trimmed well ahead of the weekend. Diving into the new trading week, things are already off to a slow start. There seems to be no clear direction and a lack of momentum for equities and risk appetite in general; so taking a new swing or position trade is inviting excess risk. What's more, with poorly defined ranges and channels, there is limited potential for short-term setups. Therefore, it pays to be especially selective and patient so that good trade opportunities come to me rather than try to force a bad situation into a failed trade. For my book, I'm carrying over my two existing positions from last week. The remaining half of my short AUDCHF continues to eat away the profit won with the massive break through the turn of the month. I still have a ways to go before this hits breakeven and I'm knocked out. My other existing position is the long USDJPY. Now in the money on the bigger position, I'll hold off on taking half profit. The ultimate purpose here is to wait for a bigger reversal and hold for a long term on small size. I can certainly take half profit to lower my risk over time though. A new addition to my active list is a short GBPUSD. Having broken 1.0585, I have take a short on a retest of this former support and will see what we can achieve. A stop above the range of highs this past week and first target of 1.4750 seems reasonable. As for my potential setups, I am still waiting for AUDCAD to get a better price to short and AUDNZD to finally mark a meaningful, bearish trend reversal. A new one to keep an eye on is the NZDUSD congestion of the past few active trading sessions. A short-term chart shows the potential for a sharp break from congestion.

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