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Risk Appetite Rallies Though the Currency Market Still Relatively Stable

Risk Appetite Rallies Though the Currency Market Still Relatively Stable

2010-07-07 14:58:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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We are starting to see something interesting developing. Risk appetite has rallied in traditional assets (equities, commodities); but EURUSD and GBPUSD have not put in for meaningful follow through on their anti-dollar trends. This is perhaps a collective vote that confidence is relatively flimsy at the moment and speculative interests in capital return are the temporary source of strength for these other markets. Looking a little more closely at the majors, we can also see that USDJPY and USDCHF have extended their declines. This is unusual for two reasons. First, the progress contradicts the lack of follow through on more risk-prone pairs. Second, the dollar is typically considered the defacto 'high yield' currency for USDJPY specifically. Perhaps we are seeing a seismic fundamental shift for the dollar. If that is the case, we may have an interesting market going forward regardless of whether sentiment rises or falls. For my active positions, I'm still drifting for the most part. The remaining half of my AUDCHF short is still well in the money; but its trend has been held up by obvious congestion. My small USDJPY long is being pushed further into the red; but I have a very wide stop thanks to my position size which allows for fundamental conditions to sort themselves out. My long pound exposure has benefit modestly in my half-size GBPUSD; but here too we have congestion (1.5225 - 1.5075) preventing the development of a clear trend. GBPNZD on the other hand just slipped below my entry point having reversed after a the medium-term trendline break. I'll keep a stop at 2.1625. As for pending trades, I am a little more open to the possibility of a major reversal (as opposed to breakout) from CADJPY. I would still prefer a bearish breakout below 82.00/81.50; but a push above 83.50 is a very real opportunity in its own right. As for AUDNZD's congestion, I am still more interested in a confirmed close below 1.2150 due to the sheer open area in a bearish move (though fundamentals are a little more questionable in that scenario). And, for a general reversal scenario (fundamentally and technically based), CHFJPY looks to present a good opportunity below 82.

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