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NFPs Fails to Stoke Volatility, Sets Up New Trades Next Week

NFPs Fails to Stoke Volatility, Sets Up New Trades Next Week

2010-07-02 18:07:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Well, Friday's price action was certainly disappointing for traders; but it wasn't unexpected. Sure we had significantly volatility and remarkable price developments heading into the session; but the approach of an extended holiday for American traders was a natural drain on volatility. Furthermore, the presence of Friday's NFPs curbed activity before the actual release; while the data itself was not particularly surprising. Now we are left with time to reflect on how the markets will perform next week and how we should position for that activity. My focus is on the meaningful bearish break down for US equities and the contradictory rally from EURUSD. This is very unusual and one will have to inevitably correct to the other. I am of the mind that it will be the single currency pair that adjusts to the general theme; but it is important to keep an open mind to different possibilities. Taking inventory of my current positions, I still like EURGBP and AUDCHF to the downside. The former has stalled at the top of a descending trend channel and it is net in the money between the two entries; but I have placed a stop at 0.8310. For AUDCHF, we have come upon the first notable support at its 38.2 percent Fib at 0.8920. We'll see what kind of follow through we can get. For my dollar exposure, I'm still not interested EURUSD; but I still like my GBPUSD long. It pushed above 1.5125, but we may also stall at the top of an ascending trend channel. The trailed stop is at 1.5025. As for my USDJPY, good thing I'm in a smaller position size. A short-term descending trendline has showed up on the 60-minute chart, perhaps a good short-term long to add to Monday if we get a break. Then there is GBPNZD. After breaking its long-term descending trend channel, a pull back offered entry at 2.1850; and we will look for follow through considering how fundamentals develop. As for potential trades, caution has kept me out of AUDNZD for now. An early morning plunge today was quickly reversed. A close below support will encourage me to get a short. CHFJPY has also seemed to offer a bullish breakout on an ascending triangle pattern; but I am approaching with caution and waiting until next week before I make a decision. CADJPY has slipped below 82.50; but it has chopped this level for two days. I need to see some sign of momentum; and that will confirm should the S&P 500 and other equity benchmarks show conviction in selling pressure.

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