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Euro Opportunities Bow to Commodity Currency Run

Euro Opportunities Bow to Commodity Currency Run

2010-05-20 15:56:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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The fundamental winds haven't shifted; but the principle reactors to the drivers have certainly been switched up. Until recently, the euro was one of the most prominent short-side currencies when risk aversion was picking up due to the immediate concerns surrounding the European Union and its mismanagement of Greece and other fiscally irresponsible member economies. This morning, risk appetite has extended its descent with another marked tumble in equities; but the euro itself has held up relatively well. Why is this? After plunging approximately 3,000 pips in 6 months, there is a sense that EURUSD has perhaps moved far enough to be reevaluated for its sense of equilibrium. This does not mean the decline is over - especially if another crisis ripples through the region - but until something notable occurs, pure speculation and conjecture may not be able to sustain the momentum. At the same time, FX traders that have grown used to the market's high level of volatility are looking for those currencies and pairs that are exceedingly mispriced given the direction that speculative trends have maintained. Under the crosshairs now are the commodity currencies which until recently have proven themselves to be pretty resilient to the rise in pessimism. As for my positions, I have booked profit on the rest of my EURAUD long position (which looks hasty now). My other active euro position, EURGBP, has not hit its stop; but it has come close. Still in the money on this setup; I'll wait to for either the stop to trigger or an eventual bearish break. Adding to my euro interests this morning, I have taken a EURNZD short that should not be held for too long. A test of a descending trendline and 50-day SMA (along with the fundamental concern that the Euro Zone's troubles aren't done and the kiwi is looking at a full chamber of rate hikes ahead of it); this looks like a descent short position with good carry as long as the risk aversion move doesn't become too panicky. My best performers this morning though are my short AUDCAD and AUDCHF. The formers bear trend is now mature; and the latter has finally confirmed a bullish trend channel break with substantial downside potential. I have already hit the first target on both for 440 and 475 respectively. Keeping my eyes open, I'm also going to look for a possible rebound on the AUDJPY range low break (I missed the overnight entry), I am also looking at a strong range on CADJPY and waiting to see what EURUSD does at its historically 50 percent Fib retracement.

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