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Commodity Crosses Plunge, Euro Slide Stalls

Commodity Crosses Plunge, Euro Slide Stalls

2010-05-19 18:36:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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The winds of risk aversion are still blowing strong; but the euro seems to found its footing. Despite the ongoing concern over Greece and its sinking influence over the broader European Union, the shared currency has taken a break from its mature bear trend - and against a number of its counterparts, it has actually rallied. Does this mean that the euro's troubles are over or the market is no longer concerned over a Euro Zone-born financial crisis? Certainly not. However, such a consistent and aggressive trend must fall upon periods of congestion and retracement due to the nature of speculative markets (profit taking and speculators trying to call a bottom). Yet, this does mean the larger trend has come to an end. Nonetheless, in the interim, there are opportunities to be had with the temporary rebound in the euro. My short-term EURAUD setup from yesterday has triggered and hit both targets in the span of a single session. On the other hand, the bounce has not done too much damage to my short EURGBP position. Still within its 0.8600 / 0.8500 range; I am still waiting for direction and am sitting well enough in the money with an entry just above 0.87. Should take up its tumble once again, I would expect EURGBP to be one of the better positioned pairs; but a break below the historic 50 percent Fib on EURUSD at 1.2135 would be another unique setup. From the other corners of the market, the steady decline in risk appetite has started to truly effect the commodity crosses. My AUDCAD short has has really started to pick up momentum. I have already taken my first target of 300 points; and after trailing the stop, I am free to let the remaining half of the position run as far as fundamentals will take it. My AUDCHF short has similarly hit its first target of 150; but to truly get the market moving, this pair needs to break its rising trend channel support and 100-day SMA. Keeping my eye on potentials, there are two setups that look particularly attractive. AUDJPY has tumbled to retest frequented support at 76.50. A break here could turn congestion into a bear trend. A more complicated setup is GBPNZD's rally to psychological level / 38.2 percent Fib / pivot / trendline at 2.150. This could be an opportunity for a break or reversal.

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