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Booking Profits on EURUSD

Booking Profits on EURUSD

2010-05-18 15:19:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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We all have flaws and shortfalls, trials and tribulations in our trading. For me, one of the most difficult components of my trading is deeming when it is time to take profit. Taking a multi-lot approach to trading, I will almost always set a first target that is approximately equivalent to risk. That removes a lot of the second guessing I may have; and it is also good money management when paired with a trailing stop on the remainder of my position. However, it is that second target that taxes my patience, fear and greed. Trying to remove discretion from the equation is difficult because this is where I should let a trend run. However, we have to use fundamentals and technicals as objectively as possible to establish a good point to take profit. This morning, I have booked profit on one of my best performing trade in recent months. I have stuck with my EURUSD short for three weeks now; and after hitting the first target a long while back, I am now bowing out with well over 800 points on the second lot. Why get out now? There is notable resistance in the 1.2325 level and EU crisis fears have already drove the pair down 2800 pips in a matter of six months. I am not saying that this is the end of the trend (it likely is not); but I think that there is a good chance at deeper corrections. Having already sat on this position well beyond my normal time frame, I will now wait to see if a break below 1.2325 can develop and offer another point to get back in (though an objective on such a trade will likely be far more limited than my recent ride). Looking at EURUSD as a good barometer for the euro, I may have trouble with my EURGBP. The fundamentals here are very different than the normal risk-appetite swings. The sterling is under valued form a growth and interest rate perspective relative to the euro in my perspective; but that in itself does not make a successful trade. For now, we are still chopping along within the 0.86 / 0.8425 range waiting for direction. I foresee a break to the downside; but we see a rise before the eventual tumble. I will watch this closely. As for my Aussie crosses, my AUDCAD is starting to turn to its trend. My entry proved fruitful. At the same time, the AUDCHF is still taking its time to develop. We need progress here as the roll is adding up with each day. Finally, if the euro is open to a bounce and the Aussie is starting to pull back, the most wound pair may be EURAUD. A surprisingly consistent, descending trend channel could easily fund a meaningful correction. I'll wait for a break of the 20-day SMA for a short-term long side position.

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