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Letting Mature and Burgeoning Trends Develop for the Euro And Aussie Respectively

Letting Mature and Burgeoning Trends Develop for the Euro And Aussie Respectively

2010-05-17 15:35:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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I start the week with the same set of positions that I held on the books at Friday's close. The activity that has opened the fresh trading period has been substantial; but the overall progress made has been undermined by reversals. The reason for hesitation on driving EURUSD down after it has broached fresh four-year lows or producing follow through on another sharp yen rally is that there have been no particular catalysts in the ongoing fundamental deterioration of the world's biggest threats. As of this morning, we are still running on speculators' ever-adapting assessment of risk appetite. So, without a stabilizing fundamental drive (the next step in the EU crisis, China announcing further steps to cool their market, the US sounding the alarm on bank failures, etc), the market will struggle to keep a consistent course. Looking ahead to this week's scheduled event risk, there are certain indicators that promise short-term volatility and a few that may even feed into the underlying drivers of the day. However, when it comes down to it, I think that the coordinating element for risk trends will likely come from left field. As for my positions, I am split on performance between my euro and aussie-crosses. For my EURUSD short, the push to new four-year lows is promising. As this is the remainder of a setup that has already book profit on a first half and maintains a trailed stop; I am willing to let this quick test develop into a full-fledged break to the downside. In contrast, my EURGBP is still in the money but is making very little progress. Until 0.8425 (or 0.86 to the upside) gives, this pair is range bound. From my more exotic crosses, AUDCAD has confirmed former support as new resistance at 0.92; and now we await a clear break of last Wednesday's swing low so that we can truly develop a bear wave. For AUDCHF, the right shoulder is trying to former on the head-and-shoulders pattern; but it is still somewhat choppy. This will have to perform soon; or I will get out due to the large roll. As a new potential, I also like a possible rebound to former support at 1.45 and entering a short and looking for perhaps a first target of 100 points. I missed this morning's bounce; so I will hold back. What's more I will approach this from a cautious (read reduced position size) approach.

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