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EU Bailout Doubts Spark Another Wave of Risk Aversion, but I Stick with My Positions

EU Bailout Doubts Spark Another Wave of Risk Aversion, but I Stick with My Positions

2010-05-14 17:30:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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It was only a matter of time before doubt over the EU's ability to bailout Greece and its other questionable members would once again swamp risk appetite. This morning, we have seen financial crisis mummers build into a low roar with headlines that suggest French President Sarkozy threatened to withdrawal form the Euro Zone if Germany didn't agree to the Greek bailout, Moody's warned Greece was looking at a high probability of a multi-notch downgrade in the near future and news that Portuguese banks were the most loaded with Greek assets. As sentiment deteriorates and the media catches a whiff of a story, the market will dig up all the region's skeletons. In turn, this event can develop into the true catalyst for a long-overdue correction in risky appetite. While the euro has plunged aggressively over months, the market's have done little deleveraging from their 2009 single-minded build up in exposure. A reconciling between speculative expectations and true growth-derived returns is inevitable. It is just a matter of time and fuel. My medium-term fundamental bias has not wavered; but today we see an opportunity for it to play out. I am already short EURUSD which is now pushing to fresh 19-month lows. A drop below 1.2325 could really open the flood gates. My EURGBP is still well in the money; but we need to see 0.8425 give way before this pair makes real progress. I am in this one for the longer trend potential. My AUDCHF short has pulled into the red this morning. Though risk aversion has swelled, the Aussie dollar is holding up relatively well. Still waiting for the market to progress the plateauing of interest rate and growth forecasts. A newer addition to my account is short AUDCAD. Staggering the entry worked well and I am in a full position with an average just below the 0.9185 I originally wanted. This also has long-term potential; but the carry is going to be difficult to bear. It will have to start playing out soon; or negative rollover will swamp me. Aside from these existing positions, there is potential with GBPUSD with a break below 1.45 and a variety of yen cross and majors setups; but that is all wait-and-see on Friday before the close.

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