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A Contraction in Volatility Sidelines Potential Trade Setups

A Contraction in Volatility Sidelines Potential Trade Setups

2010-05-13 16:22:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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The moderation of volatility following the crazy volatility through the final two days of last week and following over to this Monday is both a blessing and a burden. On the one hand, returning to somewhat normal trading conditions means that we can establish positions with a much lower danger of being immediately whipped out. On the other, market participants will be extraordinarily cautious in leveraging themselves up so after an obvious panic. This means that there trends will be more difficult to develop, the crowds will be a little more irrational in favor of safety and there will be an aversion to increases in activity levels (dampening breakout opportunities). These define the trading conditions we have to deal with; and this was the reason I didn't jump into the potential CADJPY breakout overnight. Aside from believing the upside would be limited, it was also lacking in momentum. The subsequent reversal similarly does not impress; so I'm standing back and reevaluating. As for my other positions, I am still in the EURUSD and EURGBP shorts with my fundamental bias stabilizing my convictions. Between the two, however, I believe that EURGBP has far greater potential technically and fundamentally to continue lower. Another position that I entered overnight is AUDCHF. This is more of a technical appeal for the head-and-shoulder pattern that is now completing the right shoulder. Fundamentally, the Australian dollar holds greater prospects for yield and growth; so either risk appetite will have to dive or the pattern will have to play out relatively soon. Another position that I like for the long-term but have yet to enter is AUDCAD. I will move my limit down from 0.9185 and stagger my entry. There is considerable trend potential from this pair over the medium to long-term as growth and interest rate expectations for the Canadian dollar are now far better than they are for Australia. On the other hand, this will have to show some level of performance; because the roll on the short side will add up.

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