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Tempered Volatility Leaves Us to Trends and Potential Breakouts

Tempered Volatility Leaves Us to Trends and Potential Breakouts

2010-05-12 15:06:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
A second day of relatively stable market activity helps us return to a state of normalcy. That means I can once again look for setups that are better suited to my normal time frame rather than the very short-term and 'hold-your-breath' long-term that I have deferred to recently. Though, taking stock of the ample fundamental uncertainty that remains in the market; it will be important to keep on our toes. Stops as well as flexibility in position sizing and objectives is still essential. In the meantime, I am looking to keep with those trends that are already established and set up for another round of positions that are now developing. Carried over from the past week, I am still short EURUSD and EURGBP as their fundamental outlook and technical trends look conducive to further follow through. As for the more timely positions, my short-term USDCAD short setup from yesterday would play out quickly. The 30 point objective proved good enough for a first objective; though there was little additional follow through and the second half of the trade would be knocked out at breakeven. As for AUDCAD, the 0.92 break looks good; but we haven't really seen a bounce back to test former support as new resistance. I may be somewhat aggressive in a limit short at 0.9185; so I may adjust it to account for the market. However, I will not chase this new trend. If it moves too far, I will simply move on to the next trade. Another pair that I am coming back to is AUDCHF. Long-term there is a rising trend channel floor at 0.96; but more immediate is a head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline around 0.9735. I am looking for an entry on an even shorter time frame near a descending trendline at 0.9935; but a real position will be developed on the neckline break and then trend channel break. Perhaps the most technical of my potential opportunities is CADJPY. The daily time frame is warped by recent volatility; but an hourly chart shows a wedge formation developing with a ceiling near 91.80 and floor at 90.90. This is a terminal pattern and a breakout is near. I would prefer a bearish resolution; but technical congestion may give us difficulty around 90. Thereby; I will want to see momentum in such a break, otherwise it will be better to abandon the setup. A push to the upside has limited reward; so my objective would be kept small.

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