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After Monday's Jolt, Currecies May Settle Into Clear Trends

After Monday's Jolt, Currecies May Settle Into Clear Trends

2010-05-11 14:56:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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While we may be still reeling from the volatility over the past three active trading sessions, it is important to remain cool and collected so that our trading does not devolve into pure emotion (which leads to such classics as revenge trading, fear to pull the trigger on the next position and complete breakdown of strategy). Evaluating the sharp reversal in sentiment yesterday, this was purely a reactionary move. After having been so tightly wound through liquidity concerns, it was inevitable that there would be a spring back - and what better catalyst for such a move than a massive bailout? Yet, we have to ask ourselves whether this rescue from the EU will fix the problem. More importantly, does the market believe that the effort will work? Personally, I foresee problems in raising the necessary capital to fund the plan; and, more importantly, the economic strains the fiscal discipline entails will probably lead to significant waves perhaps sooner than later. Fundamental convictions don't lead to winning trades. The market must come to the same conclusions for such a market event to take place. The retracement in key risk- and euro-based pairs over the past 24 hours could be interpreted either as a sign of doubt over yesterday's news or it could simply be a natural side effect of volatility falling back into normal levels. I think it is a mixture of both. Regardless, a return to uninterrupted speculation will help support fundamental and technical setups. Through all of the action Monday, I am still with my EURUSD and EURGBP shorts. Already well in the money (and having taken profit on the first half of the EURUSD position), I am comfortable with allowing these two play out. Both setups support my medium-term fundamental outlook; but the EURGBP's technical bearing for the next few months is perhaps one of the most enticing out there. Speaking of charts, AUDCAD has finally pushed through 0.92 this morning. If the pair can hold below this 8-month support, it would be good confirmation that a long overdue reversal is picking up steam. I have an entry short order set at 0.9185 looking for a bounce before the pair continues down. And, where the aforementioned AUDCAD setup is one that will take weeks to play out; I am looking at USDCAD for a potential short-term (largely technical) opportunity. Over the past seven months, the 1.02 level has acted as both support and resistance in big efforts at curbing the market. Now, it seems the pair is once again facing this boundary and is ready to make its moving. I will enter with a touch of 1.0195 and will place a stop 40 points higher and keep a first target 60 points below entry.

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