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Where will the Dollar and Yen Head as Panic Dissipates

Where will the Dollar and Yen Head as Panic Dissipates

2010-05-07 17:07:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
Panic subsided rather quickly yesterday; but the stain of uncertainty has already bleached the market. Regardless of what the catalyst of yesterday's intraday plunge was, the markets have been proven themselves vulnerable to any meaningful cracks and fissures in either the economic recovery or financial stabilization. In reality, we have seen fundamental conditions deteriorate for some time now (or at least level off); but speculators continue to price in a roaring recovery. Such a 'V'-shaped rebound is not meant to be. The necessary building blocks are not in place. Growth and yield are notable absent from the picture. Without the proper compensation and a strong economic foothold, such optimistic pricing is ultimately excess premium that can will be burned off should speculative interests fizzle. We will have to see which direction sentiment takes next week; but given the sharp selloff this morning after the US open, fear is still at the front of traders' minds. As for my positions, I have carried over my positions from yesterday; but my account has been quite active. For my EURUSD short, I am sticking with the trend as my fundamental outlook is for the European Union's situation to worsen before it ever improves. However, for my EURGBP short, the natural trailing of my stop saved me from a volatile swing that would have triggered and reversed from my distant stop. Yet, after all the hubbub, the pair ended up not far from where it was before the the election dynamic came in. With my fundamental outlook for this pair intact (bearish as the UK's health is far more stable than that of the European Union), I decided to jump back in at half size at my original entry and set an entry order to short another half at 0.87. And, relatively new to the mix is my AUDCHF. After breaking the ascending wedge from January, I set a short entry order for a possible rebound which subsequently filled at 0.9880. With a stop a hundred points higher and first target equidistant down; this volatile pair could meet one resolution or another pretty quickly.

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