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The Yen, Dollar Maintain Pace as Confidence Deteriorates

The Yen, Dollar Maintain Pace as Confidence Deteriorates

2010-05-06 15:28:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Would my account have made out as well as it has this week if I was managing the positions that were on the books from last week (with stops and limits)? It is impossible to tell. Nonetheless, all of the positions that I had this past Friday have played out well. Coming back from the Expo, my USDCAD and USDCHF positions have both hit my second targets and are completely cleared. A relatively new position, my CHFJPY took only a couple of days to hit both the first and second targets. My distant objective was set to only the bottom of the prevailing, descending wedge formation (meaning I missed out on significant follow through); but I'm not greedy. As for my open interest, I am still short both EURUSD and EURGBP and well in the money on both. A first objective on the first pair has already been tripped; but the second pair has far more potential over the longer term given the fundamental outlook. There is something that needs to be pointed out from this net exposure, however. While my pairs were varied, my exposure was consistently short risk appetite. This increases risk; but my fundamental convictions offset my concern with net risk. You have to accept some risk to make return. As for new positioning, I am already in well-performing pairs at the momentum. Jumping in most of the yen crosses or other risk-sensitive pairs now is difficult because the market has already moved so far that entry would be quite expensive. That being said, I am still looking at a few potentials. I am still watching AUDCAD for the inevitable break from 0.9435/0.92; but that still seems a ways off. More immediate is the potential collapse of the steep rising trend channel for AUDCHF. A confirmed break below 0.99 would be my signal for entry; but my stop will have to be kept reasonable (around 100 points). The first objective would be set around 0.97.

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