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Dollar Rally Stalled, Another Potential Trend Catalyst Loses Momentum

Dollar Rally Stalled, Another Potential Trend Catalyst Loses Momentum

2010-03-29 14:11:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist

Like a lesson of the elements, the dollar's attempt at forging its own strength has been curbed by a much more stalwart fundamental force: risk appetite. The greenback's breakout last week looked technically significant and there support to be found in interest rate expectations as well as the demand for stability. However, the dollar is still inextricably tied to the guise of a safe haven currency. This means a rally from this currency would require it to fight the current as speculative capital continues to flow into the market and leverage appreciation in benchmarks like the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yet, I do not consider this a true advance in risk appetite. Certainly the equity benchmarks are higher; but more objective (less influenced by high-leveraged speculative funds) gauges like the carry trade have leveled off for months now. Therefore, I am still waiting for a significant correction in sentiment to develop the next major trend. In the meantime, I have to remain flexible and keep risk management rules in place. It was my trailing stop in EURUSD that knocked me out of my short at breakeven. That was an unfortunate move for the dollar as it is the most liquid pair. Nonetheless, I have to trade what is there. A similar pullback in AUDUSD has eaten away much of the profit I had in the remaining half of my position there; but these could be opportunities.

For both of my primary positions (EURUSD and AUDUSD), I am looking to reestablish at recent highs. With EURUSD, I am back in on a reduced size position at 1.3475; while I have also moved back to a full size position on AUDUSD after its agressive rally since the open of the week. A stop of set not far north of 1.35 on EURUSD and 0.9250 on AUDUSD offers a reasonable risk profile without ignoring the potential for some additional appreciation. Other setups that look potentially interest reside with EURJPY and AUDCAD. I have been looking at the wedge formation on AUDCAD for some time; and waiting for a breakout is a patience game. EURJPY, on the other hand, has been on my radar for a shorter time; but it looks just as interesting. A range/pivot high at 125 makes for a very conspicuous neckline in a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Given the plunge that preceded the congestion part of this pattern, a reversal could be significant. I'll wait to see this level give on a lower time frame (120 minute chart or thereabouts) to look for a position.

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