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Is the Greek Lifeline Enough to Forge a Euro Recovery

Is the Greek Lifeline Enough to Forge a Euro Recovery

2010-03-16 15:29:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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At the close of the European Union's two day meeting on Greece and contengency plans for potential crises in the region, the strategy seemed exactly the same as it was going into the gathering. Officials would defer on establishing clear steps to aid Greece should it be necessary. What would come from the discussions was the possible approach to pooling funds to extend as direct loans should the economy need it. However, such an effort will require member economies to contribute taxes revenues to the pool. Considering nations like Germany among others have already rejected the notion of extending direct loans, this seems a facade solution. Most policymakers seem to simply hope conditions will improve and market confidence remains stable. If it does not, financing costs for the members that are already struggling between economic slump and painful deficit cutting will find it far more difficult to operate. And, given the long-term forecast for securing economic recovery and financial stability, this will be a looming concern for some time to come.

From a fundamental perspective, the euro has found another stepping stone. Yet, this is not altogether a permanent solution to the problem. Should underlying investor sentiment start to falter, the euro will find itself at the bottom of the ladder. This will be a condition that lasts for some time - or at least until all the EU nations have made significant headway towards reducing their deficits. In the meantime, uncertainty reigns. Positioning with fundamentals in mind, I have two existing positions. My EURGBP short is a carry over from last week. The range high at 0.9130 offers a close top to my entry at 0.9120. I am waiting at this point for a break of temporary support at 0.9045 to establish real progress. The other existing position I have is a short EURJPY from approximately 124.80 that is tapped into risk trends. A stop set just moderate distance above the 125 level will keep my risk minimized - especially on a reduced size position. Finally, I am also watching for a potential breaking on EURUSD. The past three days has seen a range high develop around 1.3790/70. If this level gives, we could have a more significant retracement of the previous three months' bear trend. After confirming the break, I will determine an appropriate stop and target.

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