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Looking to Sell EUR/USD

Looking to Sell EUR/USD

Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist

Although the latest rally has been impressive, we contend the market is still locked within a more well defined medium to longer-term downtrend off of the 2008 record highs, and as such, looking to sell rallies in 2012 is the preferred strategy. The rally has now extended beyond 1.3200 and from here we see scope for additional upside towards 1.3300. However, once the 1.3300 level is tested, there is a very compelling technical argument to be made for a bearish resumption. A closer look at the 1.3300 level shows a confluence of resistance which includes the obvious psychological barrier itself, some falling trend-line resistance off of the February 2012 peak, the upper bollinger band, and a very attractive 78.6% fib retrace off of the most recent March-April, 1.34400-1.3000 high-low move. As such, we really like the idea of fading the strength to this area if it is tested today and will place our entry just over 1.3300. (This is also contingent on our in-house risk management system approving the trade) STRATEGY: SELL AT 1.3310 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP-LOSS ONLY ON ANY DAILY CLOSE (5PM NY TIME) ABOVE 1.3410 (PREVIOUS LOWER TOP/MARCH PEAK).

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