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2011-02-03 11:51:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist

AUD/USD: The latest topside failure just ahead of a key 78.6% fib retrace off of the Dec-Jan high-low move and subsequent bearish close suggests that the market could be ready to stall out ahead of renewed weakness. Wednesday’s bearish doji-like close screams of indecision from bulls and we like the idea of selling at current levels in anticipation of a major bearish reversal over the coming days and weeks. We have placed a wide stop above the critical multi-year and post float record highs by 1.0260 (recommended 0.5-1.0X leverage) and will be looking for a minimum downside extension towards 0.9800. While we recognize and have cited the latest bearish close as justification for the trade, we also recognize that the market still might rally a bit before ultimately reversing in our favor. In the interim, look for a break back below 1.0055 to get things going to the downside. POSITION: SHORT @1.0100 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.0305.

GBP/USD: The market has been very well bid since reversing sharply in the previous week, with the rally now totally negating any short-term bearish sentiment following the break back above 1.6060. From here, there is scope for a complete retracement of the Nov-Dec high-low move, with a potential retest and break of 1.6300 over the coming session. However, intraday studies are looking very stretched at this point and any additional rallies on Thursday beyond 1.6300 should be met with some very heavy sell orders as shorter-term market participants look to book profits on existing longs. We will look to take advantage of any moves above 1.6300 and will happily establish a fresh counter-trend short position on a break above the figure. STRATEGY: SELL @1.6320 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.6420. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON THURSDAY.

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