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BUY EUR/CHF @1.4275

BUY EUR/CHF @1.4275

2010-03-23 11:33:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
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Although we were stopped from this trade in the previous week, we are inclined to take another shot should the market break to fresh all-time lows on Tuesday. Monday’s setbacks have stalled just shy of the all-time lows at 1.4300 from 2008, ahead of the latest minor bounce. While the overall outlook remains highly bearish, we can not ignore a daily RSI which has remarkably dipped below 10. Daily, weekly and monthly studies are all showing oversold and as such, we see the greater risk for a significant bounce back towards 1.4500 at a minimum, before even considering renewed weakness and bear trend resumption below 1.4300. Look for a break to fresh all-time lows today below 1.4300 ahead of a sharp rally to signal the onset of a major corrective bounce. Ultimately, with daily studies so violently oversold, we do not see a scenario where the elastic can be stretched much further. STRATEGY: BUY @1.4275 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.4225. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON TUESDAY. POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 5X EQUITY.

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