Was stopped out of NZDUSD longs last night but remain long USDCHF. Plans are to build a bigger USD bullish position over the next several days on USD dips.
The rally from the 6/10 low is accompanied by pathetic momentum. That level, 1.3176, has already been reached (1.3180 low last night). A bounce back into 1.3272-1.3300 as part of a bigger topping process would present a short opportunity. Evidence of a more important top is seen by yesterday's JS Spike (key reversal + volatility conditions). The last such setup was on 4/4, which proved to be an important low (both days are circled).
The GBPUSD is working on an outside week reversal. This would be the first reversal from a 13 week price extreme since the week that ended 3/15 (low of the year so far). 1.5564-1.5600 is resistance to sell into against the high.
Focus remains on 98.75 (half the move down and the breakdown level). Would expect any pullback to find support at 97.00/20 (post-FOMC high and pre-European open pivot high). The picture is constructive above 96.00
USDCHF
With .9290 taken out, focus shifts to .9420/90. .9270/90 is now support and I'll be looking to add longs on dips.
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