Jamie's Pick: 07/25/12
AUDUSD volatility has ticked up from levels that have previously indicated major tops in price. Since 2008, 1 week, 1 month, and 3 month volatility has only been lower at the late April, early May top. 1 year volatility hasn’t been lower since the 2008 top!
Big picture, one cannot dismiss potential for a bullish triangle from the 2011 top. The implications would be for a sharp selloff to complete the triangle (wave E) over the next few weeks to month. Near term, a new high (above 10443) cannot be ruled out in the event that a diagonal is unfolding from 9968. Based on monthly seasonality, I wouldn’t be at all surprised by a new high, however minimal. From a trading standpoint however, reward/risk is favorable for bears into 10315/40 against the Sunday night high of 10365. If stopped out, then we should be able to short above 10443 for the expected E wave drop. The 4/27 high at 10474 is obviously of interest if 10443 fails to hold.
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