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Jamie's Pick: 07/11/12

Jamie's Pick: 07/11/12

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Today's rally back to and above yesterday's entry (10240) is annoying but doesn't change the bearish bias.

"The AUDUSD is clear cut; 5 waves down from 10328 and 3 waves up from 10154 set the stage for a sharp 3rd (or c wave) decline. Levels of interest are 10070 (100% extension) and 9970 (161.8% extension and 6/25 low). I favor the more bearish 3rd wave interpretation (first objective 9970) as per my outlook for equities. To be sure, shorting risk in a low volatility environment is difficult to do psychologically but the setup is clean."

Levels may need to be adjusted slightly for targets given the move above Tuesday's high but I'll deal with limits if the decline starts playing out. Sitting tight for now.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.