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Jamie's Pick: 06/29/12

Jamie's Pick: 06/29/12

2012-06-29 13:32:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

I didn’t expect the rally we saw today but such moves are often a surprise. As mentioned yesterday, “the only thing keeping me from getting aggressive on the short side is that weekly seasonality tendencies favor a Friday high with the Monday low in place. I am short the AUDUSD but not as short as I want to be.” Phew. Here we are at new highs for not just the week but the month (monthly seasonality does it again…6/1 low to 6/29 high). This move does nothing to alter the bigger picture (bearish risk trends). In fact, the move may be a blessing to bears that were worried about the market getting away from them on the downside.

Think back to early June. Bulls capitulated after the awful NFP release on June 1 and the USD hasn’t traded higher since! The current situation is the exact opposite. CME volume (see charts below) is suggestive of capitulation by bears as ‘Europe is saved’ for the 20th or so time in the last 3 years. I’m not buying it.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.