Jamie's Pick: 02/29/12

A 5 wave advance from the 2/1 low is most likely complete in the USDJPY at Sunday evening’s high (8166). Expect weakness on balance over the next 1 to 2 weeks in order to complete a corrective 3 wave decline from 8166. Expect support at 7935/50 (2/20 low and 38.2% retracement of the 5 wave rally). A deeper decline could reach 7820/30 (61.8% retracement and breakout level). What's more, the technical position of the US bond market is conducive to a surprise rally (Bernanke?), which leaves the USD in a vulnerable state against the Japanese Yen.