Jamie's Pick: 02/28/12

A 5 wave advance from the 2/1 low is most likely complete in the USDJPY at Sunday evening’s high (8166). Expect weakness on balance over the next 1 to 2 weeks in order to complete a corrective 3 wave decline from 8166. Expect support at 7935/50 (2/20 low and 38.2% retracement of the 5 wave rally). A deeper decline could reach 7820/30 (61.8% retracement and breakout level). We’ll have a better idea regarding formation of the next low in real time but 7935/50 and 7820/30 are levels to keep in mind. Near term, I favor shorting strength into 8075/8100 for a drop into the mentioned levels.