Jamie's Pick: 02/25/11
I like being short the NZDUSD for month end. Statistics show that underperforming currencies tend to make lows at the end of the month and make their highs for the next month (March) at the beginning of that month.
The NZDUSD has traded to a fresh 2011 low but did carve out a key reversal on Wednesday. Key reversals do have a history of calling turns but the wave count is bearish with a 3rd wave possibly underway from the February high. A drop below 7342 would confirm that the NZDUSD completed wave b of a flat in late 2010 and is headed for an eventual drop below 6560. HOWEVER - near term risk is higher as per the 5 waves down from 7824. The former 4th wave extreme is resistance at 7655. Therefore, my stop is tight at 7530.
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