Jamie's Pick: 02/11/11
EURUSD - As mentioned yesterday – “the corrective channel break suggests that the sharp 3rd wave decline is underway. A drop below 13507 would shift focus to the 100% extension at 13429 and the 50 day average at 13361.” The EURUSD has traded below 13507 today and focus shifts to Fibonacci extensions at 13429 and 13234 (these levels line up with former pivots). Near term resistance is 13576.
AUDUSD - The drop below 9962 (February low) is significant because it completes an intra month reversal. The 20 and 50 day averages are holding as support (on a daily closing basis) and a drop below 9803 is needed in order to confirm a larger top. 10065 is near term resistance. Keep in mind that the year to date high remains the January 3rd high (first trading day of the year). This is the most likely date of the year to produce a high or low for the entire year.
USDJPY - As stated yesterday, the move above 8321 and strong trendline break (not to mention breaks above the 20 and 50 day averages) makes it likely that the ultimate break will be to the upside (above 8450). 8368 has now been tested so we could see some consolidation/pullback from here. The short term Elliott channel, and specifically 8300, is now support. From an Elliott perspective, it is possible that the base from the November low is a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
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