The Euro looks poised to extend its recovery against the US Dollar after prices cleared resistance at the top of a falling channel set from mid-March. Buyers now aim to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3928, with a break above that targeting the 50% level at 1.4007. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 1.3830 eyes channel top resistance-turned-support at 1.3800.

My long-term fundamental outlook continues to favor a weaker Euro, but near-term technical positioning clearly conflicts with that view. As such, I will continue to stand aside, waiting for the upswing to run its course and produce a short trade setup in the days ahead.

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