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EURUSD: A Major Top in Place?

EURUSD: A Major Top in Place?

2011-03-23 11:01:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Being a EURUSD bear has been a deeply frustrating position recently as prices lurched agressively higher amid rising ECB rate hike expectations. Indeed, markets are now pricing in a 100 percent probablity of at least a 25bps increase at the April policy meeting.

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With that in mind, it is important to bear in mind that the ECB was raising rates all the way into the single currency's major top at record highs above 1.60 in July 2008, so monetary tightening in and of itself may not keep the Euro afloat. Indeed, the currency will find itself with next to no support if the "grand bargain" on dealing with sovereign risk within the currency bloc to be unveiled this weekend is seen as insufficient to be a true bulwark against a default.

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Technically, prices are positioned just ahead of trend-defining resistance it the 1.42-1.43 area, a major inflection region that has acted as both significant support and resistance over recent years. The barrier is reinforced by a falling trend line set from teh record high. A bearish Rising Wedge pattern carved out since December as well as negative RSI divergence on both daily and weekly time frames argues for a bearish bias. With that in mind, I will remain on the sidelines until a confirmed break of the wedge bottom (now just below 1.40) clears the way to enter short.

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