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EURUSD: On the Verge of Trend Change?

EURUSD: On the Verge of Trend Change?

2011-03-21 11:44:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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My EURUSD short at 1.3829 was stopped out as prices closed above the stop-loss level at 1.4035. Beyond invalidating the March 7 swing top, the key question going forward is whether last week’s price action amounts to a trend-changing development with the break above falling trend line resistance established from the record high above 1.60 set in July 2008. Two alternative – and equally valid – approaches to drawing the line (one including the wick tops from late 2009 and one not) suggests additional confirmation is required, particularly while EURUSD trades near the often-pivotal 1.42 figure. I will closely monitor the pair in the days ahead as a directional bias is resolved.

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