News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Feels like the market has been front-running next week’s FOMC announcement, which will reveal updated dot plot projections. Expectations clearly set for a more hawkish shift in guidance. That said, if the Fed does not deliver, US Dollar bulls could be disappointed. $USD $DXY
  • USD/CAD has been chopping around the past week-and-a-half, offering virtually no cues on its next direction. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • FDA panel votes 16-3 against approving Covid-19 booster shots - BBG
  • RT @C_Barraud: 🇺🇸 Americans Haven’t Been This Down on #Housing Market Since 1982 - Bloomberg *Link:…
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups Pre-FOMC: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD
  • The US Dollar is pushing up to a fresh September high after the release of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. Get your $USD market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • I have this $SPX chart taking over one of my whole screens, and I just keep staring at that 50-day moving average...
  • RT @TheStalwart: Nice chart, which shows why countries in green on the perimeter, like Iran, Peru, and Turkey are known for their stability…
  • Selling pressure strengthening in Wall Street two hours before the close. S&P 500 down roughly 1% intraday, the largest decline since August 18th #trading $SPX $SPY
  • One of the strongest correlation with Bitcoin at the moment is the US 10-Year Treasury yield
EUR/USD Rate Vulnerable to Dovish European Central Bank (ECB)

EUR/USD Rate Vulnerable to Dovish European Central Bank (ECB)

David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD pares the weakness from earlier this week following the failed attempt to test the monthly-low (1.1306), but fresh comments coming out of the European Central Bank (ECB) may drag on the exchange rate as the Governing Council remains in no rush to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

Image of ECB interest rate

It seems as though the ECB will attempt to buy time at its first meeting for 2019 as the central bank struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability, and the Governing Council may strike a rather dovish tone as officials reduce the growth forecast for the monetary union.

It remains to be see if the ECB will alter the forward-guidance later this year as euro-area interest rates are ‘expected to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019,’ and the weakening outlook for the global economy may push President Mario Draghi and Co. to further insulate the euro-area as ‘the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner.

In turn, more of the same from the ECB may produce headwinds for EUR/USD, with recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) warning of further euro-dollar weakness as the oscillator snaps the upward trend from late-2018. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart

The outlook for EUR/USD has become uneventful ahead of the ECB meeting as the exchange rate holds a narrow range, and a batch of dovish comments may drag on the exchange rate, which may spur a run at the monthly-low (1.1306). A break/close below 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) opens up the 2018-low (1.1216), which lines up with the 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) hurdle, with the next area of interest coming in around 1.1140 (78.6% expansion).

Keep in mind, the break above the November-high (1.1500) instills a constructive outlook for EUR/USD even though the RSI snaps the bullish formation from late-2018, and a move back above the 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) region raises the risk for a move towards 1.1510 (38.2% expansion), with the next area of interest coming in around 1.1640 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1680 (50% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 1Q 2019 Forecast for the Euro

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.